Cycle Forecast

Forecasts › Crude oil › Feb 6, 2026

Crude oil cycle forecast of February 6, 2026

1 of 3 published turn dates landed within two sessions of a real turn of the same kind. Moved to random positions, the same dates would have scored 1.6 on average.

walk-forward test Walk-forward test: it was made on November 14, 2026 by running the same engine with prices only up to February 6, 2026. Nothing after that date was visible to it. Window: Feb 7 – Mar 6, 2026.

60708090Nov 15Dec 1Dec 15Jan 1Jan 15Feb 1Feb 15Mar 1Price · daily close ($ per barrel)Cycle lineforecast from Feb 6Feb 12top ✓Feb 23bottom ✗Mar 5top ✗
60708090Jan 1Jan 15Feb 1Feb 15Mar 1Price · daily close ($ per barrel)Cycle lineforecast from Feb 6Feb 12top ✓Feb 23bottom ✗Mar 5top ✗
Price before the forecastPrice after itCycle line, forecastCycle line, fitted on past pricesPublished turn dateReal turn of the price

Turn by turn

DateTurnWhat the cycle line doesWhat the price did
Thu, Feb 12Topstops rising and turns down✓ hit – real top on Feb 11, 1 session earlier
Mon, Feb 23Bottomstops falling and turns up✗ miss – the price made a top there (Feb 20)
Thu, Mar 5Topstops rising and turns down✗ miss – no real turn within two sessions

Direction over the four weeks

The cycle line ended the window higher than it started; the price moved +43.0% (63.55 → 90.90). ✓ Same direction.

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