Cycle Forecast

Track record

Every forecast this site has made, kept exactly as it was made, and judged against what the price did. Not different from chance so far.

Turn dates judged
430
138 finished forecasts
Hit
45%
192 within two sessions of a real turn
Chance
45%
the same dates, moved around
Four-week direction right
72 of 138
a coin gives half
How to read the bar. The blue part is the share of published turn dates that hit. The black tick is what chance alone gives. Blue well past the tick is skill; blue at the tick is luck.

By market

MarketForecastsTurn datesHitHit rateChanceDirection rightSo far
S&P 5009271037%38%4 of 9about chance
Nasdaq 1009251560%43%3 of 9better than chance
Dow Jones9321547%51%6 of 9about chance
Russell 20009291138%48%5 of 9about chance
Gold9301757%47%5 of 9about chance
Silver9271141%43%7 of 9about chance
Crude oil9311239%44%5 of 9about chance
Bitcoin9281761%46%6 of 9about chance
Technology sector9271763%49%6 of 9about chance
Financial sector9261142%51%1 of 9about chance
Energy sector827933%37%1 of 8about chance
Apple8251040%42%5 of 8about chance
Nvidia8241042%45%5 of 8about chance
Tesla8261038%51%4 of 8about chance
Microsoft823939%46%6 of 8about chance
Amazon823835%39%3 of 8about chance
All markets13843019245%45%72 of 138Not different from chance so far

Markets move together, so the "All markets" row counts some of the same market swings more than once. Read the rows of single markets beside it.

How a forecast is judged

  • A real turn is a daily close that is the highest, or the lowest, of seven sessions: the three before it and the three after it.
  • A hit is a published top within two sessions of a real top, or a published bottom within two sessions of a real bottom. A published top that lands on a real bottom is a miss.
  • Chance is the honest yardstick. Real turns are common: most days sit within two sessions of one. So the same published dates are slid along the window to every other position and counted again. The average of those counts is what dates with no knowledge would have scored.
  • Direction asks one simpler thing: did the cycle line and the price both end the four weeks higher, or both lower?
  • A forecast is judged only when its four weeks are over and three more sessions exist. Until then it is listed as running.

Live forecasts and walk-forward tests

16 forecasts on this site were made live, at the start of the four weeks they cover. The other 154 are walk-forward tests: the same engine, with the same settings, was run for earlier dates with prices only up to each date. A walk-forward test cannot see the future, but it was not made at the time, so each forecast carries a label that says which kind it is.

No forecast is ever redrawn. When its date has passed, it stays as it was.

Every forecast

S&P 500 – every forecast
Forecast made fromTurn datesHitChancePrice over 4 weeksDirection
Nov 13, 2026made live2running – judged after Dec 16
Oct 16, 2026walk-forward test5running – judged after Nov 18
Sep 18, 2026walk-forward test311.5+0.2%✓
Aug 21, 2026walk-forward test321.6-0.5%✓
Jul 24, 2026walk-forward test311.4+3.6%✗
Jun 26, 2026walk-forward test300.7+1.3%✗
May 29, 2026walk-forward test110.4-3.6%✗
May 1, 2026walk-forward test310.8+5.0%✓
Apr 2, 2026walk-forward test410.4+9.5%✗
Mar 6, 2026walk-forward test422.1-2.5%✓
Feb 6, 2026walk-forward test311.6-2.6%✗
Nasdaq 100 – every forecast
Forecast made fromTurn datesHitChancePrice over 4 weeksDirection
Nov 13, 2026made live2running – judged after Dec 16
Oct 16, 2026walk-forward test3running – judged after Nov 18
Sep 18, 2026walk-forward test110.4-1.6%✗
Aug 21, 2026walk-forward test422.4+1.1%✗
Jul 24, 2026walk-forward test411.5+4.3%✗
Jun 26, 2026walk-forward test221.2-3.1%✗
May 29, 2026walk-forward test331.2-4.4%✓
May 1, 2026walk-forward test320.7+9.5%✓
Apr 2, 2026walk-forward test300.0+14.1%✗
Mar 6, 2026walk-forward test321.8-2.5%✓
Feb 6, 2026walk-forward test221.3-1.6%✗
Dow Jones – every forecast
Forecast made fromTurn datesHitChancePrice over 4 weeksDirection
Nov 13, 2026made live2running – judged after Dec 16
Oct 16, 2026walk-forward test5running – judged after Nov 18
Sep 18, 2026walk-forward test311.3+0.6%✓
Aug 21, 2026walk-forward test432.4-3.1%✗
Jul 24, 2026walk-forward test421.8+2.6%✗
Jun 26, 2026walk-forward test201.1+0.2%✗
May 29, 2026walk-forward test322.1+1.3%✓
May 1, 2026walk-forward test210.8+3.2%✓
Apr 2, 2026walk-forward test501.8+6.8%✓
Mar 6, 2026walk-forward test643.1-2.1%✓
Feb 6, 2026walk-forward test322.0-5.1%✓
Russell 2000 – every forecast
Forecast made fromTurn datesHitChancePrice over 4 weeksDirection
Nov 13, 2026made live2running – judged after Dec 16
Oct 16, 2026walk-forward test3running – judged after Nov 18
Sep 18, 2026walk-forward test301.4-4.8%✗
Aug 21, 2026walk-forward test432.1-5.3%✓
Jul 24, 2026walk-forward test422.3+3.0%✓
Jun 26, 2026walk-forward test411.5-2.2%✓
May 29, 2026walk-forward test311.3+2.5%✓
May 1, 2026walk-forward test201.0+4.0%✓
Apr 2, 2026walk-forward test300.8+10.6%✗
Mar 6, 2026walk-forward test321.6+0.1%✗
Feb 6, 2026walk-forward test321.9-5.3%✗
Gold – every forecast
Forecast made fromTurn datesHitChancePrice over 4 weeksDirection
Nov 12, 2026made live4running – judged after Dec 15
Oct 16, 2026walk-forward test2running – judged after Nov 18
Sep 18, 2026walk-forward test221.4-5.5%✓
Aug 21, 2026walk-forward test542.7-5.5%✗
Jul 24, 2026walk-forward test210.5+15.0%✓
Jun 26, 2026walk-forward test321.5-0.6%✗
May 29, 2026walk-forward test321.3-10.8%✓
May 1, 2026walk-forward test522.7-1.1%✗
Apr 2, 2026walk-forward test411.6-1.1%✗
Mar 6, 2026walk-forward test421.3-9.3%✓
Feb 6, 2026walk-forward test211.0+3.6%✓
Silver – every forecast
Forecast made fromTurn datesHitChancePrice over 4 weeksDirection
Nov 12, 2026made live4running – judged after Dec 15
Oct 16, 2026walk-forward test3running – judged after Nov 18
Sep 18, 2026walk-forward test321.1-14.7%✓
Aug 21, 2026walk-forward test311.9-3.4%✗
Jul 24, 2026walk-forward test310.7+18.0%✓
Jun 26, 2026walk-forward test321.3-0.5%✓
May 29, 2026walk-forward test321.3-21.9%✗
May 1, 2026walk-forward test311.1-0.7%✓
Apr 2, 2026walk-forward test200.7+1.5%✓
Mar 6, 2026walk-forward test421.9-13.5%✓
Feb 6, 2026walk-forward test301.6+9.6%✓
Crude oil – every forecast
Forecast made fromTurn datesHitChancePrice over 4 weeksDirection
Nov 12, 2026made live3running – judged after Dec 15
Oct 16, 2026walk-forward test2running – judged after Nov 18
Sep 18, 2026walk-forward test322.1+3.1%✓
Aug 21, 2026walk-forward test310.8+10.4%✗
Jul 24, 2026walk-forward test412.3-2.5%✗
Jun 26, 2026walk-forward test310.7+29.0%✗
May 29, 2026walk-forward test310.5-20.8%✓
May 1, 2026walk-forward test421.8-14.3%✓
Apr 2, 2026walk-forward test422.3-5.8%✗
Mar 6, 2026walk-forward test411.6+22.7%✓
Feb 6, 2026walk-forward test311.6+43.0%✓
Bitcoin – every forecast
Forecast made fromTurn datesHitChancePrice over 4 weeksDirection
Nov 12, 2026made live3running – judged after Dec 15
Oct 16, 2026walk-forward test4running – judged after Nov 18
Sep 18, 2026walk-forward test312.0+0.3%✓
Aug 21, 2026walk-forward test322.1+5.4%✗
Jul 24, 2026walk-forward test331.2+20.2%✓
Jun 26, 2026walk-forward test532.6+7.0%✓
May 29, 2026walk-forward test220.4-18.6%✓
May 1, 2026walk-forward test311.1-6.4%✗
Apr 3, 2026walk-forward test311.0+17.3%✓
Mar 6, 2026walk-forward test321.3-1.7%✓
Feb 6, 2026walk-forward test321.2-2.8%✗
Technology sector – every forecast
Forecast made fromTurn datesHitChancePrice over 4 weeksDirection
Nov 13, 2026made live2running – judged after Dec 16
Oct 16, 2026walk-forward test4running – judged after Nov 18
Sep 18, 2026walk-forward test210.9-3.3%✗
Aug 21, 2026walk-forward test543.1+3.4%✓
Jul 24, 2026walk-forward test310.7+4.2%✓
Jun 26, 2026walk-forward test221.2-2.8%✗
May 29, 2026walk-forward test331.4-5.3%✓
May 1, 2026walk-forward test320.7+18.0%✓
Apr 2, 2026walk-forward test300.6+17.2%✗
Mar 6, 2026walk-forward test322.1-0.9%✓
Feb 6, 2026walk-forward test322.5-2.7%✓
Financial sector – every forecast
Forecast made fromTurn datesHitChancePrice over 4 weeksDirection
Nov 13, 2026made live2running – judged after Dec 16
Oct 16, 2026walk-forward test1running – judged after Nov 18
Sep 18, 2026walk-forward test301.1-0.7%✗
Aug 21, 2026walk-forward test200.8-2.8%✗
Jul 24, 2026walk-forward test432.3+2.1%✗
Jun 26, 2026walk-forward test431.9+5.2%✗
May 29, 2026walk-forward test110.7+3.8%✓
May 1, 2026walk-forward test211.2-0.7%✗
Apr 2, 2026walk-forward test301.2+5.2%✗
Mar 6, 2026walk-forward test311.6-2.0%✗
Feb 6, 2026walk-forward test422.6-6.8%✗
Energy sector – every forecast
Forecast made fromTurn datesHitChancePrice over 4 weeksDirection
Nov 13, 2026made live4running – judged after Dec 16
Oct 16, 2026walk-forward test2running – judged after Nov 18
Sep 18, 2026walk-forward test301.3+6.1%✓
Aug 21, 2026walk-forward test422.3+1.1%✗
Jul 24, 2026walk-forward test411.9+6.7%✗
Jun 26, 2026walk-forward test511.0+10.7%✗
May 29, 2026walk-forward test210.5-4.4%✗
May 1, 2026walk-forward test220.6-4.3%✗
Apr 2, 2026walk-forward test311.0+0.6%✗
Mar 6, 2026walk-forward test411.4+4.8%✗
Apple – every forecast
Forecast made fromTurn datesHitChancePrice over 4 weeksDirection
Nov 13, 2026made live2running – judged after Dec 16
Oct 16, 2026walk-forward test2running – judged after Nov 18
Sep 18, 2026walk-forward test310.7+2.3%✗
Aug 21, 2026walk-forward test310.8+8.5%✓
Jul 24, 2026walk-forward test412.8-7.1%✓
Jun 26, 2026walk-forward test210.7+18.4%✓
May 29, 2026walk-forward test331.7-9.9%✓
May 1, 2026walk-forward test300.3+11.4%✓
Apr 2, 2026walk-forward test422.6+6.0%✗
Mar 6, 2026walk-forward test311.1-0.6%✗
Nvidia – every forecast
Forecast made fromTurn datesHitChancePrice over 4 weeksDirection
Nov 13, 2026made live3running – judged after Dec 16
Oct 16, 2026walk-forward test2running – judged after Nov 18
Sep 18, 2026walk-forward test311.3-3.6%✗
Aug 21, 2026walk-forward test533.1+3.4%✓
Jul 24, 2026walk-forward test301.1+3.8%✗
Jun 26, 2026walk-forward test211.3+7.9%✓
May 29, 2026walk-forward test321.2-9.2%✓
May 1, 2026walk-forward test411.3+6.4%✗
Apr 2, 2026walk-forward test310.8+12.5%✓
Mar 6, 2026walk-forward test110.8-0.2%✓
Tesla – every forecast
Forecast made fromTurn datesHitChancePrice over 4 weeksDirection
Nov 13, 2026made live4running – judged after Dec 16
Oct 16, 2026walk-forward test2running – judged after Nov 18
Sep 18, 2026walk-forward test412.4-2.6%✗
Aug 21, 2026walk-forward test311.3+0.4%✗
Jul 24, 2026walk-forward test211.3+15.9%✓
Jun 26, 2026walk-forward test411.6-17.5%✗
May 29, 2026walk-forward test311.8-12.9%✗
May 1, 2026walk-forward test521.9+11.5%✓
Apr 2, 2026walk-forward test311.2+5.8%✓
Mar 6, 2026walk-forward test221.7-9.1%✓
Microsoft – every forecast
Forecast made fromTurn datesHitChancePrice over 4 weeksDirection
Nov 13, 2026made live2running – judged after Dec 16
Oct 16, 2026walk-forward test4running – judged after Nov 18
Sep 18, 2026walk-forward test321.9+7.3%✓
Aug 21, 2026walk-forward test322.0+2.0%✗
Jul 24, 2026walk-forward test200.5+26.6%✓
Jun 26, 2026walk-forward test211.0+2.8%✓
May 29, 2026walk-forward test321.3-17.4%✓
May 1, 2026walk-forward test301.7+8.4%✓
Apr 2, 2026walk-forward test311.7+9.2%✗
Mar 6, 2026walk-forward test410.5-8.6%✓
Amazon – every forecast
Forecast made fromTurn datesHitChancePrice over 4 weeksDirection
Nov 13, 2026made live3running – judged after Dec 16
Oct 16, 2026walk-forward test4running – judged after Nov 18
Sep 18, 2026walk-forward test512.1-1.4%✗
Aug 21, 2026walk-forward test321.4-2.0%✓
Jul 24, 2026walk-forward test110.5+11.4%✗
Jun 26, 2026walk-forward test300.3+0.7%✓
May 29, 2026walk-forward test311.0-14.8%✗
May 1, 2026walk-forward test200.8+0.9%✓
Apr 2, 2026walk-forward test310.8+26.3%✗
Mar 6, 2026walk-forward test322.1-1.6%✗