Cycle Forecast

Forecasts › Crude oil › Aug 21, 2026

Crude oil cycle forecast of August 21, 2026

1 of 3 published turn dates landed within two sessions of a real turn of the same kind. Moved to random positions, the same dates would have scored 0.8 on average.

walk-forward test Walk-forward test: it was made on November 14, 2026 by running the same engine with prices only up to August 21, 2026. Nothing after that date was visible to it. Window: Aug 22 – Sep 18, 2026.

708090100Jun 1Jun 15Jul 1Jul 15Aug 1Aug 15Sep 1Sep 15Price · daily close ($ per barrel)Cycle lineforecast from Aug 21Aug 25top ✗Sep 3bottom ✗Sep 11top ✓
708090100Jul 15Aug 1Aug 15Sep 1Sep 15Price · daily close ($ per barrel)Cycle lineforecast from Aug 21Aug 25top ✗Sep 3bottom ✗Sep 11top ✓
Price before the forecastPrice after itCycle line, forecastCycle line, fitted on past pricesPublished turn dateReal turn of the price

Turn by turn

DateTurnWhat the cycle line doesWhat the price did
Tue, Aug 25Topstops rising and turns down✗ miss – the price made a bottom there (Aug 26)
Thu, Sep 3Bottomstops falling and turns up✗ miss – no real turn within two sessions
Fri, Sep 11Topstops rising and turns down✓ hit – real top on Sep 15, 2 sessions later

Direction over the four weeks

The cycle line ended the window lower than it started; the price moved +10.4% (87.06 → 96.08). ✗ Opposite direction.

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