How the cycle forecast is made
One engine, the same settings for every market, and no opinion added by hand.
The idea
The planets move on fixed schedules. The angles between them repeat, some every few weeks, some every few years, some after decades. That makes them a clock with many hands, and a clock that can be computed for any future date.
The engine asks one question of a market's own history: when the clock stood like this before, what did this market do next? It claims no cause. It only counts what happened.
The steps
- Read the history. Every daily bar of the market since it started trading.
- Read the clock. For each day, the angle between each pair of planets, sorted into small steps of degrees.
- Count the repeats. Each time the same pair stood at the same angle, the engine measures how the price moved over the next days. An angle that came up fewer than five times is dropped.
- Add it up for each coming day. Every angle that is active on a future day brings its own history with it. Summed and smoothed, that is the cycle line.
- Mark the turns. Where the cycle line stops rising is a top date. Where it stops falling is a bottom date. Those dates are the forecast.
What it uses, and what it does not
- It uses daily prices and the positions of the planets. Nothing else.
- It does not read news, earnings, interest rates or anyone's opinion.
- It gives dates. It gives no price target and no size of move.
- Weekends are kept in the calendar, so four weeks means 28 days, about 20 trading sessions.
Does it work?
That is a question for numbers, not for words. Each forecast is frozen when it is made and judged four weeks later against what the price did, beside what chance alone would have scored. 192 of 430 published turn dates (45%) landed within two sessions of a real turn of the same kind. Dates with no knowledge would have scored 45%. Not different from chance so far.
The schedule
A new forecast is made every second Friday after the close, for each market, from that day's price. Futures markets use their last finished session.
Engine settings of every forecast: Cyc13 · Stars2_21 · SWE_Geo_Classic_Fast · Transit1-3 · POS3_NT · weekends on · line 31, MAxo occupancy (cum) · 120 bars of history, 28 days forward.