Cycle Forecast

Forecasts › Energy sector › Mar 6, 2026

Energy sector cycle forecast of March 6, 2026

1 of 4 published turn dates landed within two sessions of a real turn of the same kind. Moved to random positions, the same dates would have scored 1.4 on average.

walk-forward test Walk-forward test: it was made on November 14, 2026 by running the same engine with prices only up to March 6, 2026. Nothing after that date was visible to it. Window: Mar 7 – Apr 3, 2026.

45505560Dec 15Jan 1Jan 15Feb 1Feb 15Mar 1Mar 15Apr 1Price · daily close (XLE, $)Cycle lineforecast from Mar 6Mar 13bottom ✗Mar 23top ✗Mar 30bottom ✓Apr 2top ✗
505560Feb 1Feb 15Mar 1Mar 15Apr 1Price · daily close (XLE, $)Cycle lineforecast from Mar 6Mar 13bottom ✗Mar 23top ✗Mar 30bottom ✓Apr 2top ✗
Price before the forecastPrice after itCycle line, forecastCycle line, fitted on past pricesPublished turn dateReal turn of the price

Turn by turn

DateTurnWhat the cycle line doesWhat the price did
Fri, Mar 13Bottomstops falling and turns up✗ miss – no real turn within two sessions
Mon, Mar 23Topstops rising and turns down✗ miss – no real turn within two sessions
Mon, Mar 30Bottomstops falling and turns up✓ hit – real bottom on Apr 1, 2 sessions later
Thu, Apr 2Topstops rising and turns down✗ miss – the price made a bottom there (Apr 1)

Direction over the four weeks

The cycle line ended the window lower than it started; the price moved +4.8% (56.56 → 59.26). ✗ Opposite direction.

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