Cycle Forecast

Forecasts › Financial sector › May 1, 2026

Financial sector cycle forecast of May 1, 2026

1 of 2 published turn dates landed within two sessions of a real turn of the same kind. Moved to random positions, the same dates would have scored 1.2 on average.

walk-forward test Walk-forward test: it was made on November 14, 2026 by running the same engine with prices only up to May 1, 2026. Nothing after that date was visible to it. Window: May 2 – May 29, 2026.

48505254Feb 1Feb 15Mar 1Mar 15Apr 1Apr 15May 1May 15Price · daily close (XLF, $)Cycle lineforecast from May 1May 4bottom ✗May 22top ✓
4849505152Apr 1Apr 15May 1May 15Price · daily close (XLF, $)Cycle lineforecast from May 1May 4bottom ✗May 22top ✓
Price before the forecastPrice after itCycle line, forecastCycle line, fitted on past pricesPublished turn dateReal turn of the price

Turn by turn

DateTurnWhat the cycle line doesWhat the price did
Mon, May 4Bottomstops falling and turns up✗ miss – no real turn within two sessions
Fri, May 22Topstops rising and turns down✓ hit – real top on May 22, the same day

Direction over the four weeks

The cycle line ended the window higher than it started; the price moved -0.7% (51.93 → 51.57). ✗ Opposite direction.

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