Cycle Forecast

Forecasts › S&P 500 › Aug 21, 2026

S&P 500 cycle forecast of August 21, 2026

2 of 3 published turn dates landed within two sessions of a real turn of the same kind. Moved to random positions, the same dates would have scored 1.6 on average.

walk-forward test Walk-forward test: it was made on November 14, 2026 by running the same engine with prices only up to August 21, 2026. Nothing after that date was visible to it. Window: Aug 22 – Sep 18, 2026.

740760780Jun 1Jun 15Jul 1Jul 15Aug 1Aug 15Sep 1Sep 15Price · daily close (SPY, $)Cycle lineforecast from Aug 21Aug 24bottom ✗Sep 8top ✓Sep 17bottom ✓
730740750760770Jul 15Aug 1Aug 15Sep 1Sep 15Price · daily close (SPY, $)Cycle lineforecast from Aug 21Aug 24bottom ✗Sep 8top ✓Sep 17bottom ✓
Price before the forecastPrice after itCycle line, forecastCycle line, fitted on past pricesPublished turn dateReal turn of the price

Turn by turn

DateTurnWhat the cycle line doesWhat the price did
Mon, Aug 24Bottomstops falling and turns up✗ miss – no real turn within two sessions
Tue, Sep 8Topstops rising and turns down✓ hit – real top on Sep 3, 2 sessions earlier
Thu, Sep 17Bottomstops falling and turns up✓ hit – real bottom on Sep 16, 1 session earlier

Direction over the four weeks

The cycle line ended the window lower than it started; the price moved -0.5% (765.69 → 761.64). ✓ Same direction.

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