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S&P 500 cycle forecast
The cycle line rises into a top around Wed, Nov 25, then falls into a bottom around Tue, Dec 8, and turns up into the end of the window (Dec 11).
For the S&P 500 (SPY) · made from the November 13, 2026 close · covers Nov 14 – Dec 11, 2026 · next update November 27, 2026
Show the numbers behind the chart
| Day | Cycle line | Engine value | Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, Nov 16 | rising | 1,031 | not yet |
| Tue, Nov 17 | rising | 1,367 | not yet |
| Wed, Nov 18 | rising | 1,737 | not yet |
| Thu, Nov 19 | rising | 2,083 | not yet |
| Fri, Nov 20 | rising | 2,345 | not yet |
| Mon, Nov 23 | rising | 2,899 | not yet |
| Tue, Nov 24 | rising | 3,027 | not yet |
| Wed, Nov 25 | rising | 3,031 | not yet |
| Thu, Nov 26 | falling | 2,919 | not yet |
| Fri, Nov 27 | falling | 2,777 | not yet |
| Mon, Nov 30 | falling | 1,903 | not yet |
| Tue, Dec 1 | falling | 1,523 | not yet |
| Wed, Dec 2 | falling | 1,143 | not yet |
| Thu, Dec 3 | falling | 775 | not yet |
| Fri, Dec 4 | falling | 465 | not yet |
| Mon, Dec 7 | falling | -295 | not yet |
| Tue, Dec 8 | falling | -381 | not yet |
| Wed, Dec 9 | rising | -367 | not yet |
| Thu, Dec 10 | rising | -245 | not yet |
| Fri, Dec 11 | rising | -5 | not yet |
S&P 500 turn dates, Nov 14 – Dec 11, 2026
| Date | Turn | What the cycle line does |
|---|---|---|
| Wed, Nov 25 | Top | stops rising and turns down |
| Tue, Dec 8 | Bottom | stops falling and turns up |
A turn date is where the cycle line turns. Allow two trading days on each side. It is a date, not a price target.
How past S&P 500 forecasts turned out
10 of 27 published turn dates (37%) landed within two sessions of a real turn of the same kind. Dates with no knowledge would have scored 38%. Too few finished forecasts to say anything yet.
| Forecast made from | Turn dates | Hit | Chance | Price over 4 weeks | Direction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2026 | made live | 2 | running – judged after Dec 16 | |||
| Oct 16, 2026 | walk-forward test | 5 | running – judged after Nov 18 | |||
| Sep 18, 2026 | walk-forward test | 3 | 1 | 1.5 | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Aug 21, 2026 | walk-forward test | 3 | 2 | 1.6 | -0.5% | ✓ |
| Jul 24, 2026 | walk-forward test | 3 | 1 | 1.4 | +3.6% | ✗ |
| Jun 26, 2026 | walk-forward test | 3 | 0 | 0.7 | +1.3% | ✗ |
| May 29, 2026 | walk-forward test | 1 | 1 | 0.4 | -3.6% | ✗ |
| May 1, 2026 | walk-forward test | 3 | 1 | 0.8 | +5.0% | ✓ |
| Apr 2, 2026 | walk-forward test | 4 | 1 | 0.4 | +9.5% | ✗ |
| Mar 6, 2026 | walk-forward test | 4 | 2 | 2.1 | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Feb 6, 2026 | walk-forward test | 3 | 1 | 1.6 | -2.6% | ✗ |
Hit = a published turn date within two sessions of a real turn of the same kind. Chance = what the same dates score when moved to every other position in the window. Direction = did the cycle line and the price both end the four weeks higher, or both lower. How the scoring works.
Questions
When is the next S&P 500 turn date?
The S&P 500 forecast made from the November 13, 2026 close has a top around Wed, Nov 25 and a bottom around Tue, Dec 8. Allow two trading days on each side of a date.
Is the S&P 500 cycle pointing up or down?
The cycle line rises into a top around Wed, Nov 25, then falls into a bottom around Tue, Dec 8, and turns up into the end of the window (Dec 11). Over the whole window the line ends higher than it starts. The line gives timing only; it says nothing about how far the price moves.
How did past S&P 500 cycle forecasts do?
10 of 27 published turn dates (37%) landed within two sessions of a real turn of the same kind. Dates with no knowledge would have scored 38%. Too few finished forecasts to say anything yet. Each one is listed above and on the track record page.
What does a turn date mean?
A top is the day the cycle line stops rising; a bottom is the day it stops falling. If the method is right, the price turns the same way within about two sessions of that day. A turn date is not a price target.
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