Cycle Forecast

Forecasts › S&P 500 › Jul 24, 2026

S&P 500 cycle forecast of July 24, 2026

1 of 3 published turn dates landed within two sessions of a real turn of the same kind. Moved to random positions, the same dates would have scored 1.4 on average.

walk-forward test Walk-forward test: it was made on November 14, 2026 by running the same engine with prices only up to July 24, 2026. Nothing after that date was visible to it. Window: Jul 25 – Aug 21, 2026.

720740760780May 1May 15Jun 1Jun 15Jul 1Jul 15Aug 1Aug 15Price · daily close (SPY, $)Cycle lineforecast from Jul 24Jul 28top ✗Aug 5bottom ✗Aug 13top ✓
730740750760770Jun 15Jul 1Jul 15Aug 1Aug 15Price · daily close (SPY, $)Cycle lineforecast from Jul 24Jul 28top ✗Aug 5bottom ✗Aug 13top ✓
Price before the forecastPrice after itCycle line, forecastCycle line, fitted on past pricesPublished turn dateReal turn of the price

Turn by turn

DateTurnWhat the cycle line doesWhat the price did
Tue, Jul 28Topstops rising and turns down✗ miss – the price made a bottom there (Jul 29)
Wed, Aug 5Bottomstops falling and turns up✗ miss – the price made a top there (Aug 7)
Thu, Aug 13Topstops rising and turns down✓ hit – real top on Aug 13, the same day

Direction over the four weeks

The cycle line ended the window lower than it started; the price moved +3.6% (738.85 → 765.69). ✗ Opposite direction.

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