Cycle Forecast

Forecasts › S&P 500 › Apr 2, 2026

S&P 500 cycle forecast of April 2, 2026

1 of 4 published turn dates landed within two sessions of a real turn of the same kind. Moved to random positions, the same dates would have scored 0.4 on average.

walk-forward test Walk-forward test: it was made on November 14, 2026 by running the same engine with prices only up to April 2, 2026. Nothing after that date was visible to it. Window: Apr 3 – Apr 30, 2026.

650675700Jan 15Feb 1Feb 15Mar 1Mar 15Apr 1Apr 15May 1Price · daily close (SPY, $)Cycle lineforecast from Apr 2Apr 3top ✗Apr 13bottom ✗Apr 24top ✗Apr 30bottom ✓
650675700Mar 1Mar 15Apr 1Apr 15Price · daily close (SPY, $)Cycle lineforecast from Apr 2Apr 3top ✗Apr 13bottom ✗Apr 24top ✗Apr 30bottom ✓
Price before the forecastPrice after itCycle line, forecastCycle line, fitted on past pricesPublished turn dateReal turn of the price

Turn by turn

DateTurnWhat the cycle line doesWhat the price did
Fri, Apr 3Topstops rising and turns down✗ miss – no real turn within two sessions
Mon, Apr 13Bottomstops falling and turns up✗ miss – no real turn within two sessions
Fri, Apr 24Topstops rising and turns down✗ miss – no real turn within two sessions
Thu, Apr 30Bottomstops falling and turns up✓ hit – real bottom on Apr 29, 1 session earlier

Direction over the four weeks

The cycle line ended the window lower than it started; the price moved +9.5% (655.88 → 718.43). ✗ Opposite direction.

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