Cycle Forecast

Forecasts › Financial sector › Aug 21, 2026

Financial sector cycle forecast of August 21, 2026

0 of 2 published turn dates landed within two sessions of a real turn of the same kind. Moved to random positions, the same dates would have scored 0.8 on average.

walk-forward test Walk-forward test: it was made on November 14, 2026 by running the same engine with prices only up to August 21, 2026. Nothing after that date was visible to it. Window: Aug 22 – Sep 18, 2026.

52545658Jun 1Jun 15Jul 1Jul 15Aug 1Aug 15Sep 1Sep 15Price · daily close (XLF, $)Cycle lineforecast from Aug 21Aug 28top ✗Sep 15bottom ✗
565758Jul 15Aug 1Aug 15Sep 1Sep 15Price · daily close (XLF, $)Cycle lineforecast from Aug 21Aug 28top ✗Sep 15bottom ✗
Price before the forecastPrice after itCycle line, forecastCycle line, fitted on past pricesPublished turn dateReal turn of the price

Turn by turn

DateTurnWhat the cycle line doesWhat the price did
Fri, Aug 28Topstops rising and turns down✗ miss – the price made a bottom there (Sep 1)
Tue, Sep 15Bottomstops falling and turns up✗ miss – no real turn within two sessions

Direction over the four weeks

The cycle line ended the window higher than it started; the price moved -2.8% (57.48 → 55.87). ✗ Opposite direction.

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