Cycle Forecast

Forecasts › Microsoft › Sep 18, 2026

Microsoft cycle forecast of September 18, 2026

2 of 3 published turn dates landed within two sessions of a real turn of the same kind. Moved to random positions, the same dates would have scored 1.9 on average.

walk-forward test Walk-forward test: it was made on November 14, 2026 by running the same engine with prices only up to September 18, 2026. Nothing after that date was visible to it. Window: Sep 19 – Oct 16, 2026.

350400450500550Jul 1Jul 15Aug 1Aug 15Sep 1Sep 15Oct 1Oct 15Price · daily close (MSFT, $)Cycle lineforecast from Sep 18Sep 21bottom ✗Sep 29top ✓Oct 9bottom ✓
480500520540Aug 15Sep 1Sep 15Oct 1Oct 15Price · daily close (MSFT, $)Cycle lineforecast from Sep 18Sep 21bottom ✗Sep 29top ✓Oct 9bottom ✓
Price before the forecastPrice after itCycle line, forecastCycle line, fitted on past pricesPublished turn dateReal turn of the price

Turn by turn

DateTurnWhat the cycle line doesWhat the price did
Mon, Sep 21Bottomstops falling and turns up✗ miss – the price made a top there (Sep 21)
Tue, Sep 29Topstops rising and turns down✓ hit – real top on Sep 25, 2 sessions earlier
Fri, Oct 9Bottomstops falling and turns up✓ hit – real bottom on Oct 8, 1 session earlier

Direction over the four weeks

The cycle line ended the window higher than it started; the price moved +7.3% (493.11 → 528.95). ✓ Same direction.

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