Cycle Forecast

Forecasts › Microsoft › Aug 21, 2026

Microsoft cycle forecast of August 21, 2026

2 of 3 published turn dates landed within two sessions of a real turn of the same kind. Moved to random positions, the same dates would have scored 2.0 on average.

walk-forward test Walk-forward test: it was made on November 14, 2026 by running the same engine with prices only up to August 21, 2026. Nothing after that date was visible to it. Window: Aug 22 – Sep 18, 2026.

350400450500Jun 1Jun 15Jul 1Jul 15Aug 1Aug 15Sep 1Sep 15Price · daily close (MSFT, $)Cycle lineforecast from Aug 21Aug 26top ✓Sep 1bottom ✗Sep 10top ✓
400450500Jul 15Aug 1Aug 15Sep 1Sep 15Price · daily close (MSFT, $)Cycle lineforecast from Aug 21Aug 26top ✓Sep 1bottom ✗Sep 10top ✓
Price before the forecastPrice after itCycle line, forecastCycle line, fitted on past pricesPublished turn dateReal turn of the price

Turn by turn

DateTurnWhat the cycle line doesWhat the price did
Wed, Aug 26Topstops rising and turns down✓ hit – real top on Aug 28, 2 sessions later
Tue, Sep 1Bottomstops falling and turns up✗ miss – the price made a top there (Aug 28)
Thu, Sep 10Topstops rising and turns down✓ hit – real top on Sep 14, 2 sessions later

Direction over the four weeks

The cycle line ended the window lower than it started; the price moved +2.0% (483.33 → 493.11). ✗ Opposite direction.

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