Cycle Forecast

Forecasts › Energy sector › May 1, 2026

Energy sector cycle forecast of May 1, 2026

2 of 2 published turn dates landed within two sessions of a real turn of the same kind. Moved to random positions, the same dates would have scored 0.6 on average.

walk-forward test Walk-forward test: it was made on November 14, 2026 by running the same engine with prices only up to May 1, 2026. Nothing after that date was visible to it. Window: May 2 – May 29, 2026.

5052.55557.56062.5Feb 1Feb 15Mar 1Mar 15Apr 1Apr 15May 1May 15Price · daily close (XLE, $)Cycle lineforecast from May 1May 21top ✓May 27bottom ✓
56586062Apr 1Apr 15May 1May 15Price · daily close (XLE, $)Cycle lineforecast from May 1May 21top ✓May 27bottom ✓
Price before the forecastPrice after itCycle line, forecastCycle line, fitted on past pricesPublished turn dateReal turn of the price

Turn by turn

DateTurnWhat the cycle line doesWhat the price did
Thu, May 21Topstops rising and turns down✓ hit – real top on May 19, 2 sessions earlier
Wed, May 27Bottomstops falling and turns up✓ hit – real bottom on May 29, 2 sessions later

Direction over the four weeks

The cycle line ended the window higher than it started; the price moved -4.3% (58.83 → 56.31). ✗ Opposite direction.

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