Cycle Forecast

Forecasts › Financial sector › Mar 6, 2026

Financial sector cycle forecast of March 6, 2026

1 of 3 published turn dates landed within two sessions of a real turn of the same kind. Moved to random positions, the same dates would have scored 1.6 on average.

walk-forward test Walk-forward test: it was made on November 14, 2026 by running the same engine with prices only up to March 6, 2026. Nothing after that date was visible to it. Window: Mar 7 – Apr 3, 2026.

47.55052.555Dec 15Jan 1Jan 15Feb 1Feb 15Mar 1Mar 15Apr 1Price · daily close (XLF, $)Cycle lineforecast from Mar 6Mar 13top ✓Mar 23bottom ✗Apr 3top ✗
48505254Feb 1Feb 15Mar 1Mar 15Apr 1Price · daily close (XLF, $)Cycle lineforecast from Mar 6Mar 13top ✓Mar 23bottom ✗Apr 3top ✗
Price before the forecastPrice after itCycle line, forecastCycle line, fitted on past pricesPublished turn dateReal turn of the price

Turn by turn

DateTurnWhat the cycle line doesWhat the price did
Fri, Mar 13Topstops rising and turns down✓ hit – real top on Mar 17, 2 sessions later
Mon, Mar 23Bottomstops falling and turns up✗ miss – the price made a top there (Mar 25)
Fri, Apr 3Topstops rising and turns down✗ miss – no real turn within two sessions

Direction over the four weeks

The cycle line ended the window higher than it started; the price moved -2.0% (50.56 → 49.55). ✗ Opposite direction.

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