Cycle Forecast

Forecasts › Microsoft › May 1, 2026

Microsoft cycle forecast of May 1, 2026

0 of 3 published turn dates landed within two sessions of a real turn of the same kind. Moved to random positions, the same dates would have scored 1.7 on average.

walk-forward test Walk-forward test: it was made on November 14, 2026 by running the same engine with prices only up to May 1, 2026. Nothing after that date was visible to it. Window: May 2 – May 29, 2026.

350375400425450Feb 1Feb 15Mar 1Mar 15Apr 1Apr 15May 1May 15Price · daily close (MSFT, $)Cycle lineforecast from May 1May 12top ✗May 21bottom ✗May 27top ✗
350375400425450Apr 1Apr 15May 1May 15Price · daily close (MSFT, $)Cycle lineforecast from May 1May 12top ✗May 21bottom ✗May 27top ✗
Price before the forecastPrice after itCycle line, forecastCycle line, fitted on past pricesPublished turn dateReal turn of the price

Turn by turn

DateTurnWhat the cycle line doesWhat the price did
Tue, May 12Topstops rising and turns down✗ miss – the price made a bottom there (May 13)
Thu, May 21Bottomstops falling and turns up✗ miss – no real turn within two sessions
Wed, May 27Topstops rising and turns down✗ miss – the price made a bottom there (May 27)

Direction over the four weeks

The cycle line ended the window higher than it started; the price moved +8.4% (414.51 → 449.48). ✓ Same direction.

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