Cycle Forecast

Forecasts › Russell 2000 › Aug 21, 2026

Russell 2000 cycle forecast of August 21, 2026

3 of 4 published turn dates landed within two sessions of a real turn of the same kind. Moved to random positions, the same dates would have scored 2.1 on average.

walk-forward test Walk-forward test: it was made on November 14, 2026 by running the same engine with prices only up to August 21, 2026. Nothing after that date was visible to it. Window: Aug 22 – Sep 18, 2026.

285290295300305Jun 1Jun 15Jul 1Jul 15Aug 1Aug 15Sep 1Sep 15Price · daily close (IWM, $)Cycle lineforecast from Aug 21Aug 27top ✓Sep 3bottom ✓Sep 11top ✗Sep 18bottom ✓
285290295300305Jul 15Aug 1Aug 15Sep 1Sep 15Price · daily close (IWM, $)Cycle lineforecast from Aug 21Aug 27top ✓Sep 3bottom ✓Sep 11top ✗Sep 18bottom ✓
Price before the forecastPrice after itCycle line, forecastCycle line, fitted on past pricesPublished turn dateReal turn of the price

Turn by turn

DateTurnWhat the cycle line doesWhat the price did
Thu, Aug 27Topstops rising and turns down✓ hit – real top on Aug 27, the same day
Thu, Sep 3Bottomstops falling and turns up✓ hit – real bottom on Sep 1, 2 sessions earlier
Fri, Sep 11Topstops rising and turns down✗ miss – no real turn within two sessions
Fri, Sep 18Bottomstops falling and turns up✓ hit – real bottom on Sep 16, 2 sessions earlier

Direction over the four weeks

The cycle line ended the window lower than it started; the price moved -5.3% (299.94 → 284.09). ✓ Same direction.

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