Cycle Forecast

Forecasts › Financial sector › Sep 18, 2026

Financial sector cycle forecast of September 18, 2026

0 of 3 published turn dates landed within two sessions of a real turn of the same kind. Moved to random positions, the same dates would have scored 1.1 on average.

walk-forward test Walk-forward test: it was made on November 14, 2026 by running the same engine with prices only up to September 18, 2026. Nothing after that date was visible to it. Window: Sep 19 – Oct 16, 2026.

545658Jul 1Jul 15Aug 1Aug 15Sep 1Sep 15Oct 1Oct 15Price · daily close (XLF, $)Cycle lineforecast from Sep 18Sep 30top ✗Oct 8bottom ✗Oct 16top ✗
545658Aug 15Sep 1Sep 15Oct 1Oct 15Price · daily close (XLF, $)Cycle lineforecast from Sep 18Sep 30top ✗Oct 8bottom ✗Oct 16top ✗
Price before the forecastPrice after itCycle line, forecastCycle line, fitted on past pricesPublished turn dateReal turn of the price

Turn by turn

DateTurnWhat the cycle line doesWhat the price did
Wed, Sep 30Topstops rising and turns down✗ miss – the price made a bottom there (Sep 30)
Thu, Oct 8Bottomstops falling and turns up✗ miss – no real turn within two sessions
Fri, Oct 16Topstops rising and turns down✗ miss – the price made a bottom there (Oct 14)

Direction over the four weeks

The cycle line ended the window higher than it started; the price moved -0.7% (55.87 → 55.51). ✗ Opposite direction.

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