Cycle Forecast

Forecasts › Financial sector › Jun 26, 2026

Financial sector cycle forecast of June 26, 2026

3 of 4 published turn dates landed within two sessions of a real turn of the same kind. Moved to random positions, the same dates would have scored 1.9 on average.

walk-forward test Walk-forward test: it was made on November 14, 2026 by running the same engine with prices only up to June 26, 2026. Nothing after that date was visible to it. Window: Jun 27 – Jul 24, 2026.

47.55052.555Apr 1Apr 15May 1May 15Jun 1Jun 15Jul 1Jul 15Price · daily close (XLF, $)Cycle lineforecast from Jun 26Jun 29top ✗Jul 8bottom ✓Jul 15top ✓Jul 23bottom ✓
525456Jun 1Jun 15Jul 1Jul 15Price · daily close (XLF, $)Cycle lineforecast from Jun 26Jun 29top ✗Jul 8bottom ✓Jul 15top ✓Jul 23bottom ✓
Price before the forecastPrice after itCycle line, forecastCycle line, fitted on past pricesPublished turn dateReal turn of the price

Turn by turn

DateTurnWhat the cycle line doesWhat the price did
Mon, Jun 29Topstops rising and turns down✗ miss – no real turn within two sessions
Wed, Jul 8Bottomstops falling and turns up✓ hit – real bottom on Jul 8, the same day
Wed, Jul 15Topstops rising and turns down✓ hit – real top on Jul 16, 1 session later
Thu, Jul 23Bottomstops falling and turns up✓ hit – real bottom on Jul 23, the same day

Direction over the four weeks

The cycle line ended the window lower than it started; the price moved +5.2% (53.55 → 56.32). ✗ Opposite direction.

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