Cycle Forecast

Forecasts › Gold › Aug 21, 2026

Gold cycle forecast of August 21, 2026

4 of 5 published turn dates landed within two sessions of a real turn of the same kind. Moved to random positions, the same dates would have scored 2.7 on average.

walk-forward test Walk-forward test: it was made on November 14, 2026 by running the same engine with prices only up to August 21, 2026. Nothing after that date was visible to it. Window: Aug 22 – Sep 18, 2026.

4,0004,2004,4004,600Jun 1Jun 15Jul 1Jul 15Aug 1Aug 15Sep 1Sep 15Price · daily close ($ per ounce)Cycle lineforecast from Aug 21Aug 24top ✓Aug 31bottom ✓Sep 3top ✓Sep 10bottom ✗Sep 18top ✓
4,0004,2004,4004,600Jul 15Aug 1Aug 15Sep 1Sep 15Price · daily close ($ per ounce)Cycle lineforecast from Aug 21Aug 24top ✓Aug 31bottom ✓Sep 3top ✓Sep 10bottom ✗Sep 18top ✓
Price before the forecastPrice after itCycle line, forecastCycle line, fitted on past pricesPublished turn dateReal turn of the price

Turn by turn

DateTurnWhat the cycle line doesWhat the price did
Mon, Aug 24Topstops rising and turns down✓ hit – real top on Aug 24, the same day
Mon, Aug 31Bottomstops falling and turns up✓ hit – real bottom on Sep 1, 1 session later
Thu, Sep 3Topstops rising and turns down✓ hit – real top on Sep 3, the same day
Thu, Sep 10Bottomstops falling and turns up✗ miss – no real turn within two sessions
Fri, Sep 18Topstops rising and turns down✓ hit – real top on Sep 18, the same day

Direction over the four weeks

The cycle line ended the window higher than it started; the price moved -5.5% (4,680.6 → 4,424.9). ✗ Opposite direction.

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