Forecasts › Crude oil › May 1, 2026
Crude oil cycle forecast of May 1, 2026
2 of 4 published turn dates landed within two sessions of a real turn of the same kind. Moved to random positions, the same dates would have scored 1.8 on average.
walk-forward test Walk-forward test: it was made on November 14, 2026 by running the same engine with prices only up to May 1, 2026. Nothing after that date was visible to it. Window: May 2 – May 29, 2026.
Turn by turn
| Date | Turn | What the cycle line does | What the price did |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon, May 11 | Bottom | stops falling and turns up | ✓ hit – real bottom on May 7, 2 sessions earlier |
| Fri, May 15 | Top | stops rising and turns down | ✓ hit – real top on May 18, 1 session later |
| Thu, May 21 | Bottom | stops falling and turns up | ✗ miss – no real turn within two sessions |
| Fri, May 29 | Top | stops rising and turns down | ✗ miss – the price made a bottom there (May 29) |
Direction over the four weeks
The cycle line ended the window lower than it started; the price moved -14.3% (101.94 → 87.36). ✓ Same direction.