Cycle Forecast

Forecasts › Russell 2000 › Feb 6, 2026

Russell 2000 cycle forecast of February 6, 2026

2 of 3 published turn dates landed within two sessions of a real turn of the same kind. Moved to random positions, the same dates would have scored 1.9 on average.

walk-forward test Walk-forward test: it was made on November 14, 2026 by running the same engine with prices only up to February 6, 2026. Nothing after that date was visible to it. Window: Feb 7 – Mar 6, 2026.

230240250260270Nov 15Dec 1Dec 15Jan 1Jan 15Feb 1Feb 15Mar 1Price · daily close (IWM, $)Cycle lineforecast from Feb 6Feb 9top ✓Feb 18bottom ✗Mar 2top ✓
245250255260265270Jan 1Jan 15Feb 1Feb 15Mar 1Price · daily close (IWM, $)Cycle lineforecast from Feb 6Feb 9top ✓Feb 18bottom ✗Mar 2top ✓
Price before the forecastPrice after itCycle line, forecastCycle line, fitted on past pricesPublished turn dateReal turn of the price

Turn by turn

DateTurnWhat the cycle line doesWhat the price did
Mon, Feb 9Topstops rising and turns down✓ hit – real top on Feb 9, the same day
Wed, Feb 18Bottomstops falling and turns up✗ miss – the price made a top there (Feb 20)
Mon, Mar 2Topstops rising and turns down✓ hit – real top on Feb 26, 2 sessions earlier

Direction over the four weeks

The cycle line ended the window higher than it started; the price moved -5.3% (265.00 → 250.89). ✗ Opposite direction.

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