Cycle Forecast

Forecasts › Energy sector › Sep 18, 2026

Energy sector cycle forecast of September 18, 2026

0 of 3 published turn dates landed within two sessions of a real turn of the same kind. Moved to random positions, the same dates would have scored 1.3 on average.

walk-forward test Walk-forward test: it was made on November 14, 2026 by running the same engine with prices only up to September 18, 2026. Nothing after that date was visible to it. Window: Sep 19 – Oct 16, 2026.

556065Jul 1Jul 15Aug 1Aug 15Sep 1Sep 15Oct 1Oct 15Price · daily close (XLE, $)Cycle lineforecast from Sep 18Sep 30top ✗Oct 9bottom ✗Oct 12top ✗
57.56062.56567.5Aug 15Sep 1Sep 15Oct 1Oct 15Price · daily close (XLE, $)Cycle lineforecast from Sep 18Sep 30top ✗Oct 9bottom ✗Oct 12top ✗
Price before the forecastPrice after itCycle line, forecastCycle line, fitted on past pricesPublished turn dateReal turn of the price

Turn by turn

DateTurnWhat the cycle line doesWhat the price did
Wed, Sep 30Topstops rising and turns down✗ miss – the price made a bottom there (Sep 30)
Fri, Oct 9Bottomstops falling and turns up✗ miss – no real turn within two sessions
Mon, Oct 12Topstops rising and turns down✗ miss – no real turn within two sessions

Direction over the four weeks

The cycle line ended the window higher than it started; the price moved +6.1% (64.32 → 68.23). ✓ Same direction.

Current Energy sector forecast →   Track record →